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I think prioritizing your expected threats is the first step in figuring out what preps you need to prepare for it. For me it is the following (In order of likelihood not necessarily impact to the world as we know it):

1. Economic Collapse (I don't care how, US default on loan, hyperinflation, aliens....but our money and traditional ecconomy is gone)

2. Sickness Epidemic (1918 style flu or worse, quarentines, mass graves, staying home from work for months)

3. Natural Disaster (Flooding, ice storms and normal stuff for the area I will be living in when I get home, and also the unexpected stuff like earthquakes or volcanos which while unlikely in my area could cause disruptions)

4. Solarflare (Not necessarily likely but even though I don't wear a tin foil hat credible science shows we are approaching the peak solar cycle and an abnormally large flare pointed right at us could have us living like the Amish for a few months with an EMP like effect)

After the above listed things get so unlikely for me (#4 is borderline) that I hesitate to list them.
 

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As a scientist, I have suspected that we're at near-to-unsustainable levels of consumption of food and services if ever there's a continent-to-hemisphere-wide tragedy that:
1. causes a disruption in the food delivery network
2. impedes the harvest of a substantial number of agricultural products
3. catastrophically degrades the fuel distribution network

The disturbing part of it is that it needn't happen in THIS hemisphere. Since many goods and a few services are fungible, and some production of same has moved off-continent (in large part, to China), we could have a major re-adjustment during the inevitable panics and social unrest when gas hits, say $9/gallon and food prices quadruple.

My thinking is - develop the preparations for a 1 year food supply for all of the members of your family initially. Think hard about storage of beans, rice, and other dry staples. Try to plan a daily calorie ration for all members - remember your pets.

Water systems may be drastically affected. You may have some access to city water or it may be shut off entirely. For folks living where there's adequate precip, the ol' rain-barrel from the 1880s would keep them in good stead, but for us westerners, we'd be in some trouble. That means access to running water and a way to purify what you get from the natural environment is imperative.

Some ammo (2000 rounds/gun) and a few basic guns would be great.

First aid supplies would be in tremendous demand, esp. in the case of your number 2 scenario. Stock up when it's cheap - i.e., before the supervolcano causes the typhus outbreak.

The most important thing would be to get to know your neighbors and form some kind of organized watch over the neighborhood. This would increase the likelihood that the least-prepared or capable amongst you don't get left to die when things go haywire.

Of your scenarios, I predict #1 to be most likely, followed by #4, then #3, then #2.

So in answer to your question, food & water preps for everybody for 1 year. This is probably prohibitively expensive!
 

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1. Economic Collapse (I don't care how, US default on loan, hyperinflation, aliens....but our money and traditional ecconomy is gone)
I think this is the most likely. Look at Europe, riots occur daily in Greece, they have happened in London, they are about to start in Spain and Portugal is waiting to see when Greece defaults and what will happen there before they, riots, start. The middle east had a lot of pent up anger over many things but chief among them was their dependence on foreign food imports and then those imports started rising astronomically in price.

Your #1 will lead to #2 due to a lack of medical care/supplies because of providers going broke or people simply not being able to afford it. Look at third-world holes, a lot of their sickness comes from poverty because they can not afford basic or decent healthcare.

It will also exacerbate #3. In an economic collapse money will not be put into preventive measures (like levees or early warning systems) and emergency response will be hampered by lack of funding as well. Widespread damage will leave people homeless or refugees in their own country as they have no money to rebuild nor fight the insurance companies to get it, or long ago stopped paying insurance as they could not afford it. I think scenario #1 is the most probable and predictable...but it is also the one where most people stick their heads in the sand as preparation.

#4 - I know in the past solar flares have caused problems in the communication grid (90s) but the grid was also not as dependent on satellite communication nor running as much traffic. If a solar flare were powerful enough to actual cause things to go offline then there would be serious problems but I think less advanced forms of communication would still be available like land lines. It would be an inconvenience at worst for a time.
 

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Economic disaster, followed by famine and hardship ... But I suspect the trigger will be caused by man, and the pursuit of conflict, or just plan old stupidity.

If it's natural, it will need to be at a global event level, or nations will help others who suffer.
 

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I think you have them listed in pretty much the correct order.

#4 would have to be a multiply hit in a relatively short time span to be much more damaging than the the NE outage a few years back. The real damage that would cause would be to kick in #1. Absolute worst case would be if we were getting hit every month or so for a long period of time, because as the economy got worse and worse; repair and startup would get slower and slower.
 

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Most likely in the near term? Weather-related. It's tornado season.
 

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#4 - I know in the past solar flares have caused problems in the communication grid (90s) but the grid was also not as dependent on satellite communication nor running as much traffic. If a solar flare were powerful enough to actual cause things to go offline then there would be serious problems but I think less advanced forms of communication would still be available like land lines. It would be an inconvenience at worst for a time.
did you see what happened in SanFran (I think) when the Navy blocked GPS signals to do some maneuvers? Hospitals, electronic bank transactions and traffic signals all went hay-wire. we are way more vulnerable than you could imagine.
 

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If a solar flare it large enough and it has happend in the past 100 years or so it will take out every transformer on every pole in the world pretty much. You are talking about complete shut down of the power grid for a couple of years. Our electronics are much more fragile than in the past. The only way to protect would be to shutdown every power plant and part of the power grid before this type of even happens.
 

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I think prioritizing your expected threats is the first step in figuring out what preps you need to prepare for it. For me it is the following (In order of likelihood not necessarily impact to the world as we know it):

1. Economic Collapse (I don't care how, US default on loan, hyperinflation, aliens....but our money and traditional ecconomy is gone)

2. Sickness Epidemic (1918 style flu or worse, quarentines, mass graves, staying home from work for months)

3. Natural Disaster (Flooding, ice storms and normal stuff for the area I will be living in when I get home, and also the unexpected stuff like earthquakes or volcanos which while unlikely in my area could cause disruptions)

4. Solarflare (Not necessarily likely but even though I don't wear a tin foil hat credible science shows we are approaching the peak solar cycle and an abnormally large flare pointed right at us could have us living like the Amish for a few months with an EMP like effect)

After the above listed things get so unlikely for me (#4 is borderline) that I hesitate to list them.
In my area I see the Natural Disaster as being more likely, such as a hurricane or an earthquake. Preparing for a hurricane is easy, I board up the windows and bug out. Earthquake will be a matter of having a few days rations on hand for short term issues or bugging out to my parents or friends for the long term.

The next likely I think would be numbers 1, followed by 2 and then 4.

A pandemic would be easy to avoid given enough time by stocking up on masks, glove and sanitizer.

For financial collapse, I suggest have lots of ammo and food. 1 year supply at least.

Also not listed, and I think should be, is terrorist attack. I don't think it's likely in my area, unless it comes in at the port (like in one of the Vince Flynn books) but it should be on some peoples lists in major metropolitan areas.
 

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If a solar flare it large enough and it has happend in the past 100 years or so it will take out every transformer on every pole in the world pretty much. You are talking about complete shut down of the power grid for a couple of years. Our electronics are much more fragile than in the past. The only way to protect would be to shutdown every power plant and part of the power grid before this type of even happens.
We attended a presentation by NOAA this semester that discussed the observation of the sun, and NOAA's ability to warn the government and public about such a problem. We'd have little warning - likely less than a day.

I have studied a situation where a rather severe solar flare, in 1859, caused widespread complications on the nascent telegraph network. Reportedly, the overseas telegraph wires were so greatly affected by a huge coronal mass ejection aimed at Earth that the lines carried enough current to power the system for many, many hours. In other words, the power generating systems for the lines were shut down to protect them but operators could still send and receive signals up and down the line during the flare.

I suggest that, since an event like this has never happened in modern times, that our electronics and power delivery systems have not been hardened to prevent damage against such a situation. The social unrest of the loss of telecommunications or even the permanent destruction of telecommunication systems, personal electronic devices, and the disabling of vehicle ignition systems could effectively wipe out our economy, our food/fuel delivery systems, and the computers which we use to conduct the billions of daily transactions that allow us to live our lives.

I don't think the damage such an event could cause to this nation could be overestimated.
 

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We attended a presentation by NOAA this semester that discussed the observation of the sun, and NOAA's ability to warn the government and public about such a problem. We'd have little warning - likely less than a day.

I have studied a situation where a rather severe solar flare, in 1859, caused widespread complications on the nascent telegraph network. Reportedly, the overseas telegraph wires were so greatly affected by a huge coronal mass ejection aimed at Earth that the lines carried enough current to power the system for many, many hours. In other words, the power generating systems for the lines were shut down to protect them but operators could still send and receive signals up and down the line during the flare.

I suggest that, since an event like this has never happened in modern times, that our electronics and power delivery systems have not been hardened to prevent damage against such a situation. The social unrest of the loss of telecommunications or even the permanent destruction of telecommunication systems, personal electronic devices, and the disabling of vehicle ignition systems could effectively wipe out our economy, our food/fuel delivery systems, and the computers which we use to conduct the billions of daily transactions that allow us to live our lives.

I don't think the damage such an event could cause to this nation could be overestimated.
That was the event i was talking about. It would destroy at the least every satellite we have in space. we would have to break out the old vacuum tube radios and equipment which the govt saved to communicate. There is a fix at least on the power side but every transformer would have to be modified which on its own would be alot of work.

This type of event would leave every nation vulnerable. No radar no communication. No idea if another nation would take this as a chance to strike another. All banks would be shut down because they cant even access your account no money no computers.
 

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That was the event i was talking about. It would destroy at the least every satellite we have in space. we would have to break out the old vacuum tube radios and equipment which the govt saved to communicate. There is a fix at least on the power side but every transformer would have to be modified which on its own would be alot of work.

This type of event would leave every nation vulnerable. No radar no communication. No idea if another nation would take this as a chance to strike another. All banks would be shut down because they cant even access your account no money no computers.
You're forgetting the most basic aspect ... It's all about the economy and the flow of goods.

Without it, and you wouldn't have it, due to such an event, the nation and the World would come to a screeching halt ... Oh, and very few vehicles would operate, and those that could, wouldn't be able to get fuel without a siphon hose and a government mandate that it is OK to steal fuel for food/medical deliveries.

And once what is currently in the ground has been depleted, we could not refine crude ... WELCOME TO HELL

Hundreds of thousands dead, famine, plague, and disease rule the planet.
Entire cities die !
Emergency services end !

Paper money is used as fuel.
A barter system exists.
People kill over a can of cat food.

Vulnerable ?
Entire nations will die !!!

And the list goes on, and on.
 

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You're forgetting the most basic aspect ... It's all about the economy and the flow of goods.

Without it, and you wouldn't have it, due to such an event, the nation and the World would come to a screeching halt ... Oh, and very few vehicles would operate, and those that could, wouldn't be able to get fuel without a siphon hose and a government mandate that it is OK to steal fuel for food/medical deliveries.

And once what is currently in the ground has been depleted, we could not refine crude ... WELCOME TO HELL

Hundreds of thousands dead, famine, plague, and disease rule the planet.
Entire cities die !
Emergency services end !

Paper money is used as fuel.
A barter system exists.
People kill over a can of cat food.

Vulnerable ?
Entire nations will die !!!

And the list goes on, and on.
I would like to think local communities would come together in such an event to find a way to survive. I know thats a pie in the sky dream though. Even being in a rich state like CT there are to many urban areas that would be in chaos and the people will steel and kill to get what they need to survive.
 

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Most likely disaster?

Obama being re-elected.
 

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I would like to think local communities would come together in such an event to find a way to survive. I know thats a pie in the sky dream though. Even being in a rich state like CT there are to many urban areas that would be in chaos and the people will steel and kill to get what they need to survive.
Save it, and read it - Thoughts On Urban Survival

Urban/Suburban ... Doesn't matter ... And that's just one perspective about a single nation dealing with an economic collapse.

A solar flare that takes down the planet, or even this nation, will be like HELL.

Yea, you'll have communities ... Think road warrior communities, and you'll be getting close to reality.
The thing is,
It won't be gasoline ... It will be food, and people will kill to live.
 

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Hopefully, not the most likely, but the most tragic IMO, would be Rosie O'Donnell being elected President in 2012! :shock:
 

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#1 - Iran nukes Israel and Saudi Arabia. Flow of oil stops for 6-36 months. Food production is severely hampered by low fertilizer, low herbicides, low pesticides in America (all made from petro stocks). Other parts of the world are worse off when we all but stop exporting food. The cost of imported food to 3rd world nations is 5-10x higher so what we can export, they can't afford to buy. The global economy collapses in a mega-depression. World war breaks out with all 2nd and 3rd tier countries attacking "the west". Starvation changes all previous alliances.

#2 solar flare. Actually of the original ones listed, it's the most likely to occur. Power grid fries and we all go Amish for months to years. Satellites may be ok as they are sort of hardened, but the power grid is toast. So are all cell phones, cell towers, land lines, computers and electronics. They will fry even if powered off with the battery out as currents will be induced by the flare within the circuitry. Modern electronics are becoming more sensitive to that as the geometries shrink. Unless you have a carburetor car from the early 70's or older, plan on walking as the electronics in the car's brains will be shot too. All modern farm equipment will also be fried dead so even America will be hungry. Of course, only a slice of the planet could be impacted as only 1/2 of the planet faces the sun at a time. We could get lucky or we could be fried and all of our enemies could be unscathed.

#3 Iran gains influence over all the Arab countries that are currently in turmoil. They cut off oil to "enemies of Islam" and "friends of Satan".

#4 Obama is NOT re-elected. Huh??? The left makes up a load of BS about the election being stolen and huge riots break out in all urban centers with the conflict expanding into civil war.

#5 Obama IS re-elected and libtards regain the House. Extravagant spending accelerates, we default on loans, the world follows our spiral into the dumper as global recession deepens with global inflation at 10% per month or more becomes the norm. Again, global starvation, the 2nd and 3rd world (and most of Europe with bribes from Iran) unite against "The West" and WW3 breaks out.


Yeah, the future's so bright I have to wear lead.
 

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I say nuclear world war
 
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