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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
A bit of an uneasy feeling here, ladies and gentlemen. I'm seeing more articles in the WSJ about risks to lenders in various sections (e.g. commercial real estate, personal housing, auto loans).

The US is talking about some BIG money give-aways, but it won't be enough if there is a 10-15% reduction in US GDP for Q2 (never mind the high-end estimate of 25% from Goldman Sachs).


What say you?
 

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My personal opinion is that the federal government will not allow the financial system to fail. Of course the current administration has it's own priorities that are not necessarily aligned with what rational people might expect. So the answer in my mind is we are headed at least into a severe, prolonged recession, or at worst, a full on depression.

The problem is there is only so much easing of monetary policy that can take place, at which point you are pushing on a piece of string. Demand has to pull the string tight, and with falling spending at that level, its not good - like really, really not good.

Works Project Administration, anyone?

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/works-progress-administration
 

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More federal debt is not the answer.
 

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Debt could become a problem going forward, once this crisis has passed we're going to need to figure out a way to slow the growth of entitlements and government programs.

But fundamentally the economy is sound, has been sound, and there's no reason to believe it won't be sound when we start to come out of this. The fundamentals always matter most and there's no reason not to think there will be a full recovery.

We do need to do things like move some critical industries back to the U.S. that's not that hard to do, pass a few laws and fund somethings and it's done.
 

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For the love of God, if anyone links a Zero Hedge article I'll probably have to call a hot line.

Ya, this isn't good. We've never done this before. It's only sustainable for a pretty short time. 2-3 months all bets are off. It's a house of cards as it is and we just brought it to a screaching halt intentionally. Crazy times for sure.
 

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Well I work for one of the big financial institutions, and I won't comment or speak on their behalf. But I do keep actual cash on hand. Why? Last year our data center caught fire, and people could not take cash out of ATM's for a short period. Ever since then, I make sure I have something on hand and I am not stranded. The scenario is this. This was the financial institution I work for, if it can happen to us it can happen to any financial institution where you don't have "now" access to your cash needs. I personally have my money going into two different financial institutions, one is a bank and the other is a credit union. Finishing up this scenario it was an outage, and was temporary. But what if there was a stay in place order, with the government not allowing movement? You need cash to make trade, or buy person to person. Just my 2 cents for myself.
 
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