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Mathematically, there's a significant difference between the calibers. According to Wikipedia, 9mm Luger has the following muzzle energy:
7.45 g (115 gr) Federal FMJ1,180 ft/s (360 m/s)355 ft⋅lbf (481 J)
8.04 g (124 gr) Federal FMJ1,150 ft/s (350 m/s)364 ft⋅lbf (494 J)
8.04 g (124 gr) Norma ENVY FMJ1,345 ft/s (410 m/s)498 ft⋅lbf (675 J)
7.45 g (115 gr) Underwood JHP +P+1,400 ft/s (430 m/s)501 ft⋅lbf (679 J)
3.9 g (60 gr) RBCD TFSP2,010 ft/s (610 m/s)538 ft⋅lbf (729 J)

According to Wikipedia, .40 S&W has the following muzzle energy:
10.69 g (165 gr) Federal FMJ1,130 ft/s (340 m/s)468 ft⋅lbf (635 J)
7.45 g (115 gr) Cor-Bon Glaser1,400 ft/s (430 m/s)500 ft⋅lbf (680 J)
10.04 g (155 gr) Federal HST1,160 ft/s (350 m/s)463 ft⋅lbf (628 J)
8.74 g (135 gr) Underwood JHP1,400 ft/s (430 m/s)588 ft⋅lbf (797 J)
12.95 g (200 gr) Doubletap FMJ FP1,050 ft/s (320 m/s)490 ft⋅lbf (660 J)

It is a bit difficult to always compare apples to apples here. But if we compare a 124 grain 9mm Luger Federal FMJ to the 165 grain .40 S&W Federal FMJ, that's 364 ft-lbf versus 468 ft-lbf respectively.

(468 - 364) / ((364 + 468) / 2) = 0.25 or 25%

That makes sense to me because with a .40 S&W you're simply pushing a heavier bullet with more powder than a 9mm Luger.

Of course, now you can get into heavier gun versus lighter gun, longer barrel versus shorter barrel, perhaps even revolver versus semi-auto. All of those considerations will affect felt recoil.
 
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