When we see something along the lines of the 1918 Spanish Flu, then I might pay attention...otherwise, anybody who is freaking out about this has utterly and completely failed to do the math (probably because they are incapable of it).
January 24th, 2020 China Quarantines 20 Million People Amidst Virus Outbreak
By Eric Quintanar
The Chinese government has quarantined 20 million people around Wuhan, China, amidst fears that Coronavirus, which can easily spread through human-to-human contact, may lead to a national pandemic.
According to The New York Times, the virus has killed at least 18 people within China and caused symptoms in an additional 600 people in the region and around the world, including one person in Washington state who had recently traveled to China.
Those closest to the regional center of the outbreak have told the news agency they are anxious from the outbreak, and are outraged that the government doesn’t seem fit to handle the task at hand.
“They can’t take proper care of all the people here,” Sun Ansheng told the news agency while waiting outside a hospital. “The city government told us there was a virus, but they didn’t explain enough what we should do.”
“I’m willing to accept that we have to stay in Wuhan, O.K., but the medical care needs to keep up,” Yang Lin, a 28-year-old woman, told the news agency, referring to the government-run Chinese healthcare system. “You shouldn’t tell us we can’t leave, and then give us second-rate medical care. That’s unfair.”
According to The Washington Post, Tom Inglesby, the director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins, has expressed skepticism about the presence of a “large-scale quarantines.”
“It runs the risk of people losing confidence in government. And it places enormous responsibilities on government to make sure that people can continue to get food, basic necessities, medicines,” Inglesby told the news agency.
According to the Associated Press, the symptoms of Coronavirus, which can cause respiratory illness within infected individuals, include fever, cough, trouble breathing and a constrained feeling in the chest area.
The Times reported Thursday evening that “authorities confirmed the first death outside of the virus’s epicenter, in a province more than 600 miles to the north.” However, no more information is known at this time, and the World Health Organization has not declared a global health emergency.
According to The Hill, Trump administration health officials, in collaboration with the Senate Health and Foreign Relations committees, are expected to deliver a joint statement on Friday regarding the outbreak in China.
“The novel coronavirus is an emerging public health threat. Senators will have the opportunity to hear directly from senior government health officials regarding what we know about the virus so far, and how our country is prepared to respond as the situation develops,” announced Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Patty Murray (D-WA).
Furthermore, the State Department and CDC have “issued a travel advisory for China earlier Thursday, urging people to seek medical help if they feel sick after traveling in the affected area,” reports the news agency.
As The Daily Wire previously reported, the Chinese government quarantined 11 million people in Wuhan earlier this week, and the outbreak has affected several other countries, including Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. Chinese officials believe that the virus originated from a food market with unsanitary conditions and wild animals.
The U.S. government is arranging a charter flight Sunday to evacuate its citizens and diplomats from the epidemic-stricken Chinese city of Wuhan to the U.S., a person familiar with the operation said.
The operation comes as the death toll from a newly identified coronavirus that originated in Wuhan climbs above 40 and the number of confirmed infections tops 1,200, with many of the cases in and around the central Chinese city of 11 million people.
The United States government is working to evacuate American citizens out of the Chinese city of Wuhan as China has now quarantined 40 million people and is warning that the nation is in a “grave situation” by the “accelerating” spread of the virus.
“The operation comes as the death toll from a newly identified coronavirus that originated in Wuhan climbs above 40 and the number of confirmed infections tops 1,300, with many of the cases in and around the central Chinese city of 11 million people,” The Wall Street Journal reported. “Roughly 1,000 American citizens are thought to be in Wuhan, and the U.S. consulate there is reaching out to those it knows about to offer a seat on the plane [which] … seats around 230 people.”
Bloomberg News reported that the quarantine area has expanded from 11 million people to 40 million people which is arguably the largest quarantine in history.
Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Business Insider that he was not surprised by the rapid spread of the virus, and that just a few months ago he created a simulation model that mapped out what would happen if a coronavirus reached a pandemic scale.
“Toner’s simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus,” Business Insider reported. “Within 18 months, 65 million people could die.”
The most severe pandemic to occur in modern history was the Influenza of 1918, also known as the Spanish Flu.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported:
The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.
The rapidly spreading virus has led the Chinese government to spearhead a highly ambitious project of building a 269,000 square foot hospital in six days that is capable of holding 1,000 infected patients.
It’s basically a quarantined hospital where they send people with infectious diseases so it has the safety and protective gear in place,” Joan Kaufman, lecturer in global health and social medicine at Harvard Medical School, told BBC.
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told BBC: “China has a record of getting things done fast even for monumental projects like this. This authoritarian country relies on this top down mobilization approach. They can overcome bureaucratic nature and financial constraints and are able to mobilize all of the resources. The engineering work is what China is good at. They have records of building skyscrapers at speed. This is very hard for westerners to imagine. It can be done.”
Jonathan Read, a British expert on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases, predicts that hundreds of thousands of people will soon be infected with the coronvirus sweeping across China and moving already to other countries around the world.
“In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649),” Read and other researchers wrote in a new paper titled “Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions.”
“We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea,” the researchers wrote.
Among other key findings in the paper:
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday warned that the spread of a deadly new virus — which starts with a fever and a dry cough and then, about a week later, leads to shortness of breath, with some patients needing hospital treatment — is accelerating. The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected some 1,400 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan. There is no known cure or vaccine.
Other projections for similar viruses are far worse. A pandemic simulation conducted late last year, called Event 201, showed devastating results. Put together by the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins, the World Economic Forum, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Event 21 used a made-up coronavirus.
“The pretend outbreak started small: Farmers began coming down with symptoms that resembled the flu or pneumonia. From there, the virus spread to crowded and impoverished urban neighborhoods in South America,” Yahoo News reported. “Flights were canceled, and travel bookings dipped by 45%. People disseminated false information on social media. After six months, the virus had spread around the globe. A year later, it had killed 65 million people.”
According to Yahoo! News, the simulated pandemic “also triggered a global financial crisis” that saw stock markets collapse and “global domestic product plunged by 11 percent.” Eric Toner, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins’ Center for Health Security told Axios the threats from infectious disease outbreaks and another pandemic are “very real.”
“As we demonstrated in our Event 201 exercise in October, the world is ill-prepared for a severe pandemic. Such a global disease outbreak would not only cause widespread illness and death but there would be severe societal and economic consequences as well,” Toner told Axios.
Canada announced its first case of the Coronavirus on Saturday, adding to an outbreak that has already claimed the lives of 41 people and sickened at least 1,300 others since it originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
The majority of the infections and all the deaths have been relegated to China's mainland thus far, but a new case has sprung up in Canada, according to The Associated Press.
Canada's first case was reportedly discovered in Toronto on Saturday. Officials said the patient is a man in his 50s who recently traveled from Wuhan to Guangzhou, China, and then to Toronto on Thursday.
Australia and Malaysia also reported their first cases on Saturday -- four each -- while Japan added its third. The first signs of the virus to appear in Europe occurred in France, which confirmed three cases on Friday, The Associated Press reported.
Most coronaviruses cause only mild symptoms, similar to that of the common cold. Other strains, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), can cause pneumonia and death.
Passengers wear masks to prevent an outbreak of a new coronavirus in a subway station, in Hong Kong, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2020. The first case of coronavirus in Macao was confirmed on Wednesday, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The infected person, a 52-year-old woman, was a traveller from Wuhan. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
The coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, began at an animal and seafood market in Wuhan and has spread to several other countries. The illness is said to be transferable between humans.
Symptoms of the virus include fever, cough and shortness of breath. There aren't many preemptive steps that can be taken to avoid infection, other than practicing basic sanitary measures on a regular basis.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends washing your hands regularly and avoiding contact with other sick people who are recovering from an illness. It also suggests avoiding touching your eyes and face, along with keeping objects and surfaces in your home or workspace clean and disinfected.
There is no vaccine to protect against the virus, although the National Institutes of Health had confirmed to Fox News that they were in the “early stages” of developing one, and officials are hoping a lockdown placed on 13 cities will help contain the virus from spreading further.
China's leaders have made major efforts to contain the spread of the virus, including the immediate construction of a 1,000-bed hospital to accommodate the growing number of patients.
The hospital will be constructed out of prefabricated buildings to accelerate the timetable, according to state media.
Fox News' Alexandria Hein and The Associated Press contributed to this report
Meh... 1300, and 41 dead. 3% mortality? Is that any different than other flu... Oh... So 3% doesn't sound like much, but it's 1500 times worse than the flu. CDC says mortality rate is 2 per 100,000 for normal flu.
It's not good, but to keep things in perspective, the CDC reports flu killed 12,000 to 61,000 each year since 2010 in the US alone. It infected 9,000,000 - 45,000,000 each year and hospitalized 140,000 - 810,000 just in the U.S. Corona should be taken seriously, but there are plenty of other boogie men already hiding under the bed.
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