Obama, Romney, or a third party?

[gsh341]

Originally Posted by AwPhuch

How does NOT voting for Romney legitimately mean voting for 0bie?

Let's say that 0bama only gets 40% of the vote, Romney get's 39% and the 3rd party guy gets 21%.

Who's president?

Just because 60% of the country voted for someone other than 0bama doesn't mean he lost. It means they could have beaten him, but were too divided to get the job done.

It's going to be close enough as it is without a third party candidate screwing with the numbers.

Look at the map and which states are likely to go for 0bama. Then look at the likely Romney states.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Right now it's looking like 0bama only needs about 33 electoral votes to clinch a re-election.

[LocoGringo]

Dirty Deuce defines the "rabid Paul supporters". Having said that, like I stated in a previous post, I'll vote for whoever the GOP candidate is. If it's Paul, he gets my vote. If it's Romney, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. I truly am an "ANYONE but Obama" voter.

However, once the candidates are chosen by the 2 parties, it's a 2 candidate race and anyone that votes 3rd party is voting for Obama. It will be a rerun of the 1992 election with Bush Sr., Clinton and Perot.

[Carnivorous]

Originally Posted by LocoGringo

Dirty Deuce defines the "rabid Paul supporters". Having said that, like I stated in a previous post, I'll vote for whoever the GOP candidate is. If it's Paul, he gets my vote. If it's Romney, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. I truly am an "ANYONE but Obama" voter.

However, once the candidates are chosen by the 2 parties, it's a 2 candidate race and anyone that votes 3rd party is voting for Obama. It will be a rerun of the 1992 election with Bush Sr., Clinton and Perot.

Perot very well may have won if he hadn't dropped out halfway through.

FairVote.org | The Perot Simulator

[Dirty Deuce]

Originally Posted by LocoGringo

Dirty Deuce defines the "rabid Paul supporters". Having said that, like I stated in a previous post, I'll vote for whoever the GOP candidate is. If it's Paul, he gets my vote. If it's Romney, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. I truly am an "ANYONE but Obama" voter.

However, once the candidates are chosen by the 2 parties, it's a 2 candidate race and anyone that votes 3rd party is voting for Obama. It will be a rerun of the 1992 election with Bush Sr., Clinton and Perot.

Loco, you know nothing about me. I'm just sick of seeing the same rhetorical fallacies spread by the ignorant masses. Nobody has this thing won yet, and we don't know who the nominee is at this point. That's a fact. You assume too much cowboy.

As I've commented repeatedly it's not a two person race at this point. We won't get there for several months unless Paul drops out. I'm not the one trying to muddy the waters and fearmongering by speaking in absolutes.

In all honesty, the only way I see "O" taking it is if a lot of people choose to stay home instead of casting a ballot. Unfortunatly for us, it seems like it could be likely. I sure hope not.

[LocoGringo]

Originally Posted by Dirty Deuce

Loco, you know nothing about me. I'm just sick of seeing the same rhetorical fallacies spread by the ignorant masses. Nobody has this thing won yet, and we don't know who the nominee is at this point. That's a fact. You assume too much cowboy.

As I've commented repeatedly it's not a two person race at this point. We won't get there for several months unless Paul drops out. I'm not the one trying to muddy the waters and fearmongering by speaking in absolutes.

In all honesty, the only way I see "O" taking it is if a lot of people choose to stay home instead of casting a ballot. Unfortunatly for us, it seems like it could be likely. I sure hope not.

Just like you stated in a previous post, "I assume nothing, but if the shoe fits...". I can understand your frustration at people saying the nomination is wrapped up when it isn't, but you're coming on here attacking people like an impatient 15 year old with some recently learned, little known knowledge who doesn't understand why everyone else doesn't know what he knows.

I also agreed with you that it isn't a two person race right now. It WILL be after the convention and you were asked (legitimately) if you would support the nominee (whoever it is). I'm not doing any fearmongering or water muddying by speaking in absolutes either. I would also wager that most of the other posters you may be referring to are talking more in probability and likelihood versus absolutes, but I can't speak for them.

I also think it's not nearly as close as the polls and media would have us believe. What bothers me a lot is people quoting polls like they're gospel. Polls are little tiny samples taken with subtle phrasing from skewed sources. I don't really buy them at all. I've NEVER been polled. Has anyone else on this forum been polled? Really, I'm curious to find out and would like to hear how they found you.

[LocoGringo]

Originally Posted by Carnivorous

Perot very well may have won if he hadn't dropped out halfway through.

FairVote.org | The Perot Simulator

All speculation because he didn't win and Clinton did. Disregarding speculation, the effect was the same. A third party, independent candidate was in the race who split the conservative vote and enabled Clinton to win the race with a plurality (versus majority) of the vote.

If he might well have won, why did he exit the race? Had he created what he wanted and didn't really want the Presidency? Who enters a race to quit if they might win? Again, ALL speculation because reality is reality.

[JayXDM]

Originally Posted by gsh341

Let's say that 0bama only gets 40% of the vote, Romney get's 39% and the 3rd party guy gets 21%.

Who's president?
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Well that depends on what states are won. It's an electoral college, not a popular vote. You just have to win enough electoral college votes to win the election. In the above scenario Romney, with 39% of the vote, could win the election if he has the right states. If Romney won Texas, California (not likely) New York, Florida, PA, IL, & Ohio by getting 51% of the vote in each of the states he would have a commanding lead. Win the state and you get ALL of the electoral votes for that state. It's simple math actually. Will it happen? Probably not.

[gsh341]

Originally Posted by JayXDM

Well that depends on what states are won. It's an electoral college, not a popular vote. You just have to win enough electoral college votes to win the election. In the above scenario Romney, with 39% of the vote, could win the election if he has the right states. If Romney won Texas, California (not likely) New York, Florida, PA, IL, & Ohio by getting 51% of the vote in each of the states he would have a commanding lead. Win the state and you get ALL of the electoral votes for that state. It's simple math actually. Will it happen? Probably not.

I'm well aware of the electoral college.

That's why I included a link to the electoral college map showing that Obama likely has 237 electoral votes and could win by locking up just a few swing states.

However, most states force the electors to follow the popular vote in that state. So if 0bama had 40% of the California popular vote, Romney had 39% and Paul grabbed the remaining 21%, 0bama would carry the state and all 55 electoral votes. However, if you remove Paul and give his votes to Romney, then Romney wins California with 60%.

Looking at the map I linked to, all 0bama has to do is add WI and FL to that map and he'll have the win at 272 electoral votes. So anything that reduces the chance for Republicans to beat 0bama is a bad idea in my book

[Mjolnir]

Originally Posted by Dirty Deuce

What primary do you refer to? The primary still hasn't happened yet. It really has nothing to do with who the media says is "winning" at this point. The current delegate counts are merely an illusion due to the way the GOP rules are written. Some of the stances in this thread just prove how little most of the commentors actually know about the delegate system. It's also why the establishment GOPers are so afraid of Paul.

Romney may be "ahead" but what is being reported isn't the true picture of the delegate count. We won't get to see the real numbers until the convention if it is in fact brokered and goes to a vote it'll free up the "bound" delegates to vote for their true pick.

I highly suggest some of you familiarize yourselves with how they system actually works. Paul had been cleaning up delegate seats from the onset b/c his supporters know how it works. That's also why he's been blackballed as public enemy #1.

So, seeing as Libertarians are so "f**king nuts" as someone else said this begs the question. If we see a brokered convention, and Romney indeed loses the nomination to Paul, will you vote Paul or will all of this chest puffing and silly talk be for nothing?

I do understand the system fairly well, but I am also young, so I was simply asking if there is a way for Ron Paul to win the nomination. I understand that it is possible, and if he becomes the nominee, then I will vote for him in a heart beat, but as I said before, not all of his thoughts/ideas seem sound to me. But he is a far better option than Obama, and I believe that he has solid strategys to get are country on a far more soild track. But what I am tired of is all of his supporters treating every other conservative like a fool, for not completely siding with this guy. We all care about this country, we are on the same team. The enemy is the socialist president and his regime.

[getanxd]

wasn't this a pole at one time? if it were, what was the standing at the time it closed...i didn't get a chance to vote. i would have voted Rep over a 3rd party b/c Perot begatting clinton and above all of current sitting prez AND Senate...i think an untethered barry is completely DANGEROUS - esp for future SCOTUS nominees - beyond his socialism agenda and anti-capitalism!

the 'let it burn' RP or no-one crowd i just don't get or understand their logic...and i dont' like rommy much at all! i'm afraid to vote as my write in for Mike Huckabee, i'll wait for the climate of my state before i do that...i'll probably chicken out and hold my nose and vote for mitt(ens)!