Gun sales increase could predict Obama defeat

[tomfoolery]

I've bought more lately then i normally would have. More mags, ammo, even guns.

[ThumperMX113]

It's really true ... I'm going to predict this election. The past few days show McCain closing the gap. The next few days that is going to stop and it's going to show Obama pulling away very minimally. However this will be a lie and completely untrue. The 7 states up for grab will be McCains for the taking and Obama himself will be blown out. We will cling to our guns for another 4 years !! VICTORY !!

[EdSky]

It's pretty much what's been motivating me. I started reloading and I'm considering buying an AR-15 before they get banned.

[Wired]

Originally Posted by jmichna

Interesting article, but how do the authors get their information regarding:

"(3) Early voting has not met Obama’s expectations — Republicans are tied or ahead in most states, and nowhere is Obama enjoying blowout advantages he claimed he’d have."

Are results from ballots cast early made public? I've seen no mention of this from any state's early balloting.

Originally Posted by nalioth

Exit polls.

+1 for the exit polls.

One of my co-workers was telling me that in another election for a state or county office, everyone said they had voted for candidate A, but when the official results came in, candidate B creamed them. They said they voted for the other guy so as to not look bad. If the article is true, I hope this isn't happening. Remember, there's no way to know until the end.

[mongoose33]

There is, of course, another way to view the "data" on people stocking up on guns and ammo this year as opposed to when Kerry ran.

That alternative view says that people back then didn't believe Kerry would win, and therefore felt no compulsion to stock up. This year, those people see the handwriting on the wall, and are hedging their bets.

Certainly single-issue gun owners are going to vote for McCain--but that's nothing new, and signals no change at all.

I tend to read the tea leaves differently than the author in the OP. I've seen much more enthusiasm for Obama here in Wisconsin than I can remember for any Democratic candidate. Even Clinton didn't excite people like we see here.

My son is an editor for his high school paper. They are trying to run an election special comparing the two major candidates. He found much more enthusiasm, many more volunteers, and a more coherent operation in the Democratic headquarters on Main Street than he found in the Republican headquarters directly across the street.

In fact, I have seen a form of support for Obama I've never witnessed in any election. One farmer has taken large round bales of hay, placed 5 of them side-to-side with the ends facing traffic, whitewashed the ends, and written in large red letters "OBAMA" on the 5 bales. He's got them in both directions, and it's a remarkable display.

Most of the evidence right now points to an Obama victory. Unless there's a last-minute surprise, or that there is more racism in people's choice than the polls are picking up, it's hard to see any way McCain will win.

I could be wrong, of course (of course!), but I see little which is encouraging a McCain victory. National polls are silly; we don't elect by popular vote, we elect with the electoral college, and the savvy political observer will look at state-by-state comparisons, not national comparisons.

If I'm handicapping the race, I give Obama an 85% chance of a win, McCain the remaining 15%.

And in the end, I think we'll find that Palin was a bigger drag on the McCain ticket than a help.

[nalioth]

Originally Posted by Wired

+1 for the exit polls.

One of my co-workers was telling me that in another election for a state or county office, everyone said they had voted for candidate A, but when the official results came in, candidate B creamed them. They said they voted for the other guy so as to not look bad. If the article is true, I hope this isn't happening. Remember, there's no way to know until the end.

You are referring to the "Bradley effect", which is very interesting reading.

[gsx1138]

I voted for Clinton twice, obstained in 2000 because I wanted McCain in there, and voted for Kerry in 2004.

This year I already mailed in my ballot for McCain. I think the giant failure that is the GOP was caused by the extremists in their party. I see Obama as an extremist. He will do more damage to the Democrats than good.

[CrAz3D]

Originally Posted by ThumperMX113

It's really true ... I'm going to predict this election. The past few days show McCain closing the gap. The next few days that is going to stop and it's going to show Obama pulling away very minimally. However this will be a lie and completely untrue. The 7 states up for grab will be McCains for the taking and Obama himself will be blown out. We will cling to our guns for another 4 years !! VICTORY !!

I dont think so.

Many states continue to fall

CNN Electoral Map Calculator - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com

[ForTehNguyen]

the media kool-aid wont show anything that makes obama look bad. Polls predicted kerry would win 2004 by double digits, didnt happen. Last few democratic candidates have always been inflated at the polls

[ThumperMX113]

Craz3d you fail, posting a link from CNN? Come on man ... Why don't you just post something from the New York times !?

Originally Posted by ForTehNguyen

the media kool-aid wont show anything that makes obama look bad. Polls predicted kerry would win 2004 by double digits, didnt happen. Last few democratic candidates have always been inflated at the polls

Bingo ...