Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268

[Frenchy]

Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268 by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author)
Posted 05/28/2008 ET
Updated 05/28/2008 ET

Outlook

1. Sen. Hillary Clinton’s comment that Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1968 justified her staying in the presidential race was an event that crystallized the antipathy to her inside party ranks. Even old-time Clintonites were appalled.
2. The most important political impact of Clinton’s conduct is to make Sen. Barack Obama’s task as nominee more difficult. For the first time, we hear serious talk among Democrats that the party may not be fully able to join ranks at the convention in Denver in late August.
3. The hostility on both sides is intense. Clinton’s labor union base (AFCSME, American Federation of Teachers, and the International Association of Machinists) pounds away at Obama (he was booed in a recent rally in Puerto Rico). Obama partisans refer to “feminists” unreasonably prolonging the competition. The longer this continues, the more difficult will be reconciliation.
4. But the steady endorsement of Obama by more super-delegates is incontestable. Such old-time Clinton backers as Roger Altman and Sarah Kovner are saying the battle is over. Nobody has any doubts about who will be nominated, which makes Clinton’s campaign more destructive.
5. The next showdown will come Saturday at the meeting of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to finally settle the Florida and Michigan delegate disputes. To the consternation of Democrats seeking a solution, Clinton supporters are disputing the compromise that would give Obama uncommitted delegates from Michigan. Clintonistas argue that the “uncommitted” delegates are up for grabs.
6. Sen. John McCain, however, still does not appear organized to take advantage of Democratic disarray. His biggest problem may be failure to realize that the Republican coalition is not fully united behind him. The most recent defectors are lobbyists expelled from his campaign who are not happy about their treatment. We continue to hear complaints from evangelicals, economic conservatives, and other critics of McCain. The refrain continues from conservatives that maybe the country and the GOP need four years of Obama.

Continued...
McCain 270, Obama 268. - HUMAN EVENTS

[KingArthur]

Gee, looks like we will see the return of the hanging chads in Florida...by that outlook. Maybe this time Gore will fly down and help poke some holes.

[Frenchy]

It's going to be interesting to say the least.

[AZXD]

Originally Posted by Frenchy

It's going to be interesting to say the least.

You can say that ... Me, I consider it scary that so many will blindly follow this cult of personality (Obama), who says little of value and has big plans that can damage this country.

Right now ... Hillary is McCain's best hope.
As long as she remains, the disarray continues, and the uniting cannot move forward.

[XDConvert9mm]

Originally Posted by AZXD

You can say that ... Me, I consider it scary that so many will blindly follow this cult of personality (Obama), who says little of value and has big plans that can damage this country.

Right now ... Hillary is McCain's best hope.
As long as she remains, the disarray continues, and the uniting cannot move forward.

As of today she has stated that she is in it for the haul, right through Denver. The Clinton's just don't give up, no matter what the media has to say about it. Saturday's vote by the DNC on what to do with FL and MI should be a tipping point for ole Hillary's chances. Not that she will allow that to adjust her "strategy". 1968 relived in Denver here we come!

[longtalltechsan]

What kills me about seeing that map is how many more square miles are conservative than liberal. Those damn urban areas kill us.

[Judge]

What's really funny is the 'blue staters' are always talking about how the 'red states' are less educated ect...

The funny part is, the real support in the blue states comes from the poor inner cities - the better educated and richer middle class and upper class areas vote repub largely.

Originally Posted by longtalltechsan

What kills me about seeing that map is how many more square miles are conservative than liberal. Those damn urban areas kill us.

[Prometheus]

Interesting break downs...

Indiana (11): Indiana has been solid Republican turf in recent presidential contests, with Bush wins of 16 and 21 points in his two runs here. But this year McCain will need to work hard to keep this state in the GOP column.
Obama’s first advantage is Lake County, which includes the cities of Gary and East Chicago as well as some liberal suburbs. This is Obama’s home turf and the second-most populous county in the state. Indianapolis has a high black population, while Bloomington’s liberal university population could generate enthusiasm (although only 28,000 people voted in Monroe County in the Democratic primary).
McCain lacks the down-home appeal that made Christian Midwestern voters so drawn to Bush, adding to Obama’s hopes. Democrats, of course, picked up three congressional seats in Indiana in 2006. However, Democrats have gained here with socially conservative candidates. With Obama and governor candidate Jill Long Thompson atop the Democratic column, Indiana Republicans should have a rebound year in 2008. Leaning Republican.

mcAmnesty could lose IN. Indiana votes conservative (except parts of Lake county and Indy as noted). mcAmnesty isn't very inspiring for those of us looking for a actual conservative. I predict quite a bit of conservative voters either staying home or going third party. Outcome? Indiana goes to a dem by one or two points and they win the election.

Maybe it will wake up the idiot republicans who picked mcAmnesty? Maybe they'll wake up for 2012 and realize: NO MORE LIBERALS!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KingArthur]

Which is why I refuse to live in the Urban areas. They can all be liberal until it hurts, and kill each other off, and I will just watch the mess from afar.

[yeahYeah]

If this is the case, expect the Racism brigade (Sharpton and Jackson) to be out in full force. If obama looses the general election, it will make Gore's 2000 antics look like a cocktail party.