Al Qaeda Losing Face - concerned?

[jdavionic]

Just curious. I've read that AQ is "losing" in Iraq. If true, great news. But I wonder whether the combination of events and timing is a possible red flag to future attacks here.

What I mean is...AQ must be losing credibility, funding, and recruitment interest with their failures in Iraq, and their continued empty threats. Their video and audio taped threats are hardly making the evening news anymore. WRT latter, I know that they are making an effort to strike here and abroad. But at the end of the day, they have not succeeded hitting us since 9/11/01.

Consider these points along with the fact that this is an election year, do you think the timing is right for a strike within the next 6 months?

My $0.02 worth answer is "yes." I think the timing is almost perfect for a strike. I don't think they give a rat's ass whether McCain, Obama, or Clinton wins the election. But I do think they care about their credibility. And right now, I believe they are feeling threatened and a sense of urgency to accomplish something on US soil.

What do you think?

[Frenchy]

I think confining or attention to AQ in Iraq, belies their strength elsewhere in the world.

[jmichna]

Originally Posted by Frenchy

I think confining or attention to AQ in Iraq, belies their strength elsewhere in the world.

+1

Although, if I were AQ and thinking things through, I would expect any attack on American soil would be expected to steel American resolve for some type of additional military action, and tend to get the more hawkish of presidential tickets elected... I doubt AQ would expect such an attack to cause us to fold our tents. On the other hand, if they intend only to cause destruction and damage, and do not care about consequences, then all bets are off.

[Frenchy]

Originally Posted by jmichna

+1

Although, if I were AQ and thinking things through, I would expect any attack on American soil would be expected to steel American resolve for some type of additional military action, and tend to get the more hawkish of presidential tickets elected... I doubt AQ would expect such an attack to cause us to fold our tents. On the other hand, if they intend only to cause destruction and damage, and do not care about consequences, then all bets are off.

I agree.

[jdavionic]

Originally Posted by jmichna

Although, if I were AQ and thinking things through, I would expect any attack on American soil would be expected to steel American resolve for some type of additional military action, and tend to get the more hawkish of presidential tickets elected... I doubt AQ would expect such an attack to cause us to fold our tents. On the other hand, if they intend only to cause destruction and damage, and do not care about consequences, then all bets are off.

Don't know. They attacked Spain before their elections in an apparent effort to manipulate their elections.

And I don't doubt their strength elsewhere. However part of their tactics includes a PR campaign that is required for them to get both financial support and new recruits. They are quite in tune with the idea of perception. And currently, I think they are perceived as a tiger with no teeth. Bin Ladin releases a tape and folks generally say 'yeah, whatever...' and move on with their lives.

[Son of Norway]

I think capturing and / or killing Bin Laden is essential in the GWOT. Every AQ needs to know that no matter who you are, you cannot hide. Of course, current indicators are that if you kill 3,000 American citizens on their soil, the President doesn't give your capture any priority.

[jdavionic]

Originally Posted by Son of Norway

I think capturing and / or killing Bin Laden is essential in the GWOT. Every AQ needs to know that no matter who you are, you cannot hide. Of course, current indicators are that if you kill 3,000 American citizens on their soil, the President doesn't give your capture any priority.

I agree that he must be held accountable for us to finish what we started and make the bastard pay for his deeds. But does he have any clout anymore? His video and audio tapes are not even headlines now. Folks here don't even give the guy a second thought. His threats are hollow. So how effective is he as a leader? How effective is he at raising money and drawing in more recruits given that he is the Rodney Dangerfield of terrorists...getting no respect for his threats?

[jmichna]

Obviously, none of us know for certain, but I really suspect Osama has been pushing up daisies for some time... we just don't know where the rotting corpse is at. He apparently did/does have a serious kidney disease, and it could not have been at all easy to maintain dialysis treatments. Heck, I know people who with the best of dialysis care, lead very tenuous lives. If he's still around, he needs to shoot a video with him looking hale and hearty, and talking in detail about some current events to prove he's still Number 1. And, the way AQ subordinates have been eliminated, I don't really hear a lot about guys clamoring to step into the AQ Number 2 slot when a vacancy arises.

[Judge]

I'm callin' B.S. on this one. The US has put huge resources into finding Bin Laden, anyone who says otherwise is simply unfamiliar with the efforts, the terrain and the inhabitants of the region. The US has utilized numerous tracks to locate and kill bin laden including forming Team 121, extensive efforts by the CIA, DIA, both M-5 and the French Intelligence agency have put in major efforts, every taliban captured is interrogated, we have around the clock predator and reapers scanning the area, the NSA continues to put major resources into monitoring and translating phone and electronic communications from the region....

Basically its the worst terrain in the world, an area the size of western US, with 10's of thousands of miles of uncharted tunnels - dug over 500 years...

Again, we couldn't find Rudolph in a few hundred square miles in NC - where he lived alone without tribal support for years. Folks just don't realize what truly hunting for a needle in a huge haystack is like.

And he could be dead.

But there's no hesitation in blaming this country and President Bush....

Originally Posted by Son of Norway

I think capturing and / or killing Bin Laden is essential in the GWOT. Every AQ needs to know that no matter who you are, you cannot hide. Of course, current indicators are that if you kill 3,000 American citizens on their soil, the President doesn't give your capture any priority.

[Son of Norway]

Originally Posted by Judge

I'm callin' B.S. on this one. The US has put huge resources into finding Bin Laden, anyone who says otherwise is simply unfamiliar with the efforts, the terrain and the inhabitants of the region.

And I support this recent development of renewed interest in his capture. Too bad it came 7+ years since the WTC attacks.

Originally Posted by Judge

Basically its the worst terrain in the world, an area the size of western US, with 10's of thousands of miles of uncharted tunnels - dug over 500 years...

Don't make excuses for our military. If the mission is clear and the tools are provided, they can find him if it takes tracking him to the gates of hell.

Originally Posted by Judge

And he could be dead.

A hollow victory if true. It may be my own personal vendetta, but I would like him to die with a US infantryman's knife in his gut.

Originally Posted by Judge

But there's no hesitation in blaming this country and President Bush....

Blame the country? Nope. Read my post. Blame Bush? Goddam right I do.

Regarding AQ losing face, I think there is some truth in that. The idea of suicide bombings can't be that popular in any corner of the world. You will only find so many idiots willing to do this.