Iran War...probability? - XDTalk Forums - Your HS2000/SA-XD Information Source!

jdavionic · 03-29-2007, 05:04 PM

No cut & paste articles...just soliciting opinions while providing my own.

Iran detains 15 British soldiers and claims they were in Iranian territorial waters. UK presents its claim of GPS data that their soldiers were illegally captured. Iran shows a video with a claimed confession of a female soldier. UK condemns the video, cites the confession as coerced, and demands their release. Iran says she will be released. UK says it will go to UN. Iran says if you do, they'll be put on trial; and they now demand an apology. UK says no, goes to the UN, and now the UN demands their release.

Sounds like 2 kids shoving each other behind the school. It's becoming harder and harder for me to see a peaceful solution to this one. IMO, I think the UK will either try a risky hostage rescue mission or will use it as an excuse to strike Iran's nuclear facilities & their 1 oil refinery.

What do you think?

Hwkeye · 03-29-2007, 05:07 PM

I really dont think this will lead to anything. If anyone right now was to strike Iran, it would be all Isreal, and maybe Isreal with a joint effort. Iran is starting to feel too much pressure of sanctions and diplomacy, that means that what we are doing is working, their country is falling apart around them. 80% of the country is pro west, the goverment is not fairly representing their people... I think the sanctions will eventually lead them to break.... unless their govt does somthing really stupid... But I dont think these 15 sailors will break the deal. just my 2 cents.

**DanTheEldest** · 03-29-2007, 05:11 PM

Hmmm.....

There could be some limited military activity probably targeting the refinery with special-ops groups or a couple strike aircraft; I can't see them going after the nuke facilities with anything less than a full-on airstrike or tactical nukes as it seems like it would be futile with the amount of damage they could inflict.

Also look for some possible retaliatory naval action--maybe engagement of the vessels that seized the Brits plus a couple other ships just for extra salt in the wound. They're outclassed and they know it--the Iranians are just probing to see how committed everybody is.

Not to minimize the situation, but it's funny how every time oil prices get a little low for a bit (relatively speaking), the head-whack-job-in-charge in Tehran thinks up something new to get the futures traders' panties in a bunch.

DirtLawyer · 03-29-2007, 05:12 PM

I think Iran is playing a dangerous game and is making a calculated gamble that the UK and the US are overextended and war-weary and will not take military action at the risk of starting a wider conflict. They will condition the release of the soldiers on concessions over their nuclear program. I don't think we will ultimately back down on that, but we'll make other concessions that cost us down the road and the hostages will be released without bloodshed.

Hate to say it, but this is the cost of the decisions made about Iraq. Daddy Bush caught a lot of flak for not moving into Baghdad and removing Saddam from power--but right now I think history is going to be calling him pretty smart.

Hwkeye · 03-29-2007, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtLawyer

I think Iran is playing a dangerous game and is making a calculated gamble that the UK and the US are overextended and war-weary and will not take military action at the risk of starting a wider conflict. They will condition the release of the soldiers on concessions over their nuclear program. I don't think we will ultimately back down on that, but we'll make other concessions that cost us down the road and the hostages will be released without bloodshed.

Hate to say it, but this is the cost of the decisions made about Iraq. Daddy Bush caught a lot of flak for not moving into Baghdad and removing Saddam from power--but right now I think history is going to be calling him pretty smart.

+1 all the way.

NewXD40fun · 03-29-2007, 05:40 PM

Capturing the soldiers of another country for nothing is a terrorist act. How does a victim country (UK) respond to a terrorist act......we attacked Al Qaeda in Afghanistan after 9/11 and they have never returned. Terrorists attacked UK on July 7, 2005 and what happened.......now the UK is a constant target for terrorists.

Tom

**PackerfanXD** · 03-29-2007, 05:51 PM

I think that Iran is begging for some kind of small-scale war that would solidify a country that is probably going to crumble from within if the right amount of pressure is applied (which it is being applied). Otherwise is is an outcast in the region with no sympathy to gain; and all the players know it. The smartest thing for the UK to do is keep up political and economic pressure without going to war with Iran. JMHO.

jdavionic · 03-29-2007, 06:17 PM

I wonder whether they are pushing for a variety of reasons...unify their own country, unify their neighbors with them against the non-muslim countries, serve as a catalyst for terror strikes in the US & UK, etc.

NewXD40fun · 03-29-2007, 06:36 PM

One of the analysts on Fox news mentioned that Iran knew that world oil prices would skyrocket because of this crisis and Iran would profit immensly.

Don't they need money to finish their new nuclear reactor?

Tom

**Powerman** · 03-29-2007, 06:53 PM

This is simply my opinion. I believe in my gut that Iran is not suicidal whako terrorists. I believe they know they have no hope of winning a war with the U.S., or U.K. Heck even Israel for that matter, but that is a whole other can of worms. They have no justification with the Global community for war, and they have no strong allies wanting to jump on their band wagon for a war.

I really believe that all their chest pumping lately is for bargaining power. A nuke program and possibility of a weapon is a bargaining tool to improve their position in the M.E. They have no way of defending the program from Israel, let alone what we would do to them if we actually believed they were a loose cannon with a nuke.

I simply believe that they are doing what any other country would do. They sense our weakened position as an opportunity to improve their position. They believe we are too busy, or too streched to stop it. We are streched, but we could certainly still wipe them off the map. But, with the mess that Iraq is in, they know how distateful of an option that is for us. So they pump their chest.

Remember also, this isn't just about the U.S., Iraq was their enemy, and now it is a vacant country. That is what they really want. Not to conquer, but for resources and influence. That is the position in the M.E. that they are trying to improve. The U.S. invasion of Iraq has been a blessing for them. Why do you think we stopped on the road to Bagdad in Gulf I??? We needed to let SH keep enough millitary power to keep Iran in check in the region. Well so much for that. The truth is that regardless of what you think the reasons are, their position has improved, and they will benifit from it. JMHO

03-29-2007, 05:04 PM	#1
jdavionic XDTalk 5K Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: GA Posts: 5,105	Iran War...probability? No cut & paste articles...just soliciting opinions while providing my own. Iran detains 15 British soldiers and claims they were in Iranian territorial waters. UK presents its claim of GPS data that their soldiers were illegally captured. Iran shows a video with a claimed confession of a female soldier. UK condemns the video, cites the confession as coerced, and demands their release. Iran says she will be released. UK says it will go to UN. Iran says if you do, they'll be put on trial; and they now demand an apology. UK says no, goes to the UN, and now the UN demands their release. Sounds like 2 kids shoving each other behind the school. It's becoming harder and harder for me to see a peaceful solution to this one. IMO, I think the UK will either try a risky hostage rescue mission or will use it as an excuse to strike Iran's nuclear facilities & their 1 oil refinery. What do you think?

03-29-2007, 05:07 PM	#2
Hwkeye XDTalk 1K Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: In my house. Posts: 1,219	I really dont think this will lead to anything. If anyone right now was to strike Iran, it would be all Isreal, and maybe Isreal with a joint effort. Iran is starting to feel too much pressure of sanctions and diplomacy, that means that what we are doing is working, their country is falling apart around them. 80% of the country is pro west, the goverment is not fairly representing their people... I think the sanctions will eventually lead them to break.... unless their govt does somthing really stupid... But I dont think these 15 sailors will break the deal. just my 2 cents. __________________ -Justin Glock 22 Smith and Wesson 442 1877 Remmington Single Shot 20 Guage 1899 Winchester 02-22, single shot .22 "Put on the full armor of God so that you can take your stand against the devil's schemes. For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms." -Ephesians 6:11-12

03-29-2007, 05:11 PM	#3
DanTheEldest XDTalk 5K Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 6,284	Hmmm..... There could be some limited military activity probably targeting the refinery with special-ops groups or a couple strike aircraft; I can't see them going after the nuke facilities with anything less than a full-on airstrike or tactical nukes as it seems like it would be futile with the amount of damage they could inflict. Also look for some possible retaliatory naval action--maybe engagement of the vessels that seized the Brits plus a couple other ships just for extra salt in the wound. They're outclassed and they know it--the Iranians are just probing to see how committed everybody is. Not to minimize the situation, but it's funny how every time oil prices get a little low for a bit (relatively speaking), the head-whack-job-in-charge in Tehran thinks up something new to get the futures traders' panties in a bunch. __________________ The AK-47: Designed to be field-stripped and used effectively by a half-drunk, half-frozen illiterate conscript who found it buried in Mother Russia's mud after last year's Regiment exercises. SOP: retrieve from ground, pee in action, cycle bolt, go back to work. I cannot and will not recant anything, for to go against conscience is neither right nor safe. Here I stand, I can do no other, so help me God. --Martin Luther

03-29-2007, 05:12 PM	#4
DirtLawyer XDTalk Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Maryland Posts: 95	I think Iran is playing a dangerous game and is making a calculated gamble that the UK and the US are overextended and war-weary and will not take military action at the risk of starting a wider conflict. They will condition the release of the soldiers on concessions over their nuclear program. I don't think we will ultimately back down on that, but we'll make other concessions that cost us down the road and the hostages will be released without bloodshed. Hate to say it, but this is the cost of the decisions made about Iraq. Daddy Bush caught a lot of flak for not moving into Baghdad and removing Saddam from power--but right now I think history is going to be calling him pretty smart. __________________ XD9 Service

03-29-2007, 05:40 PM	#6
NewXD40fun XDTalk 2K Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: North Olmsted, Ohio Posts: 2,729	Capturing the soldiers of another country for nothing is a terrorist act. How does a victim country (UK) respond to a terrorist act......we attacked Al Qaeda in Afghanistan after 9/11 and they have never returned. Terrorists attacked UK on July 7, 2005 and what happened.......now the UK is a constant target for terrorists. Tom __________________ Springfield XD-40 Service w/DGR kit, EFK 9mm Taurus PT-140 Mill Pro _ Specialized Roubaix Expert "YOU'VE GOT TO STAND FOR SOMETHING OR YOU'LL FALL FOR ANYTHING" ---Aaron Tippin

03-29-2007, 05:51 PM	#7
PackerfanXD XDTalk 5K Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Ground zero of the invasion Posts: 6,910 Blog Entries: 1	I think that Iran is begging for some kind of small-scale war that would solidify a country that is probably going to crumble from within if the right amount of pressure is applied (which it is being applied). Otherwise is is an outcast in the region with no sympathy to gain; and all the players know it. The smartest thing for the UK to do is keep up political and economic pressure without going to war with Iran. JMHO. __________________ An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject. -Author unknown.

03-29-2007, 06:17 PM	#8
jdavionic XDTalk 5K Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: GA Posts: 5,105	I wonder whether they are pushing for a variety of reasons...unify their own country, unify their neighbors with them against the non-muslim countries, serve as a catalyst for terror strikes in the US & UK, etc.

03-29-2007, 06:36 PM	#9
NewXD40fun XDTalk 2K Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: North Olmsted, Ohio Posts: 2,729	One of the analysts on Fox news mentioned that Iran knew that world oil prices would skyrocket because of this crisis and Iran would profit immensly. Don't they need money to finish their new nuclear reactor? Tom __________________ Springfield XD-40 Service w/DGR kit, EFK 9mm Taurus PT-140 Mill Pro _ Specialized Roubaix Expert "YOU'VE GOT TO STAND FOR SOMETHING OR YOU'LL FALL FOR ANYTHING" ---Aaron Tippin

03-29-2007, 06:53 PM	#10
Powerman XDTalk 2K Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 2,452	This is simply my opinion. I believe in my gut that Iran is not suicidal whako terrorists. I believe they know they have no hope of winning a war with the U.S., or U.K. Heck even Israel for that matter, but that is a whole other can of worms. They have no justification with the Global community for war, and they have no strong allies wanting to jump on their band wagon for a war. I really believe that all their chest pumping lately is for bargaining power. A nuke program and possibility of a weapon is a bargaining tool to improve their position in the M.E. They have no way of defending the program from Israel, let alone what we would do to them if we actually believed they were a loose cannon with a nuke. I simply believe that they are doing what any other country would do. They sense our weakened position as an opportunity to improve their position. They believe we are too busy, or too streched to stop it. We are streched, but we could certainly still wipe them off the map. But, with the mess that Iraq is in, they know how distateful of an option that is for us. So they pump their chest. Remember also, this isn't just about the U.S., Iraq was their enemy, and now it is a vacant country. That is what they really want. Not to conquer, but for resources and influence. That is the position in the M.E. that they are trying to improve. The U.S. invasion of Iraq has been a blessing for them. Why do you think we stopped on the road to Bagdad in Gulf I??? We needed to let SH keep enough millitary power to keep Iran in check in the region. Well so much for that. The truth is that regardless of what you think the reasons are, their position has improved, and they will benifit from it. JMHO __________________ XD-45 service Springer Trigger job TFOs Coal... Improving our lives one degree at a time.

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