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Welcome to the XDTalk Forums - Your HS2000/SA-XD Information Source! forums. You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Also, registering gets you started on gaining access to The Trading Post and Blogs after 30 days and 100 posts! Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today! |
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#11 | |
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XDTalk 5K Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 9,868
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#12 | ||
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XDTalk 500 Member
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XD-9 Service, DGR, CC 3.5# Trigger, TFOs, KG Gunkote Texas XD Practical Shooters Association |
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#13 | |
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XDTalk 100 Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Vancouver, WA
Posts: 164
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Brian |
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#14 | |
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XDTalk 5K Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 9,868
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#15 | |
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XDTalk 2K Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: North Olmsted, Ohio
Posts: 2,729
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Re: Time to face the truth
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All this good economic news is bad news for the Democrats, the bad news party. I think the liberal activist HOLLY SKLAR is just mad because she can't create jobs, just bad news. Tom
__________________
Springfield XD-40 Service w/DGR kit, EFK 9mm Taurus PT-140 Mill Pro _ Specialized Roubaix Expert "YOU'VE GOT TO STAND FOR SOMETHING OR YOU'LL FALL FOR ANYTHING" ---Aaron Tippin |
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#16 | |
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XDTalk 5K Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 9,868
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#17 |
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XDTalk 500 Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Jackson, MS
Posts: 962
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The booming economy
What is it on? Dec 8th 2005 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition It just keeps on confounding the pessimists ECONOMISTS have long warned that America's fast-growing economy has shaky underpinnings: the jobs market has lagged the recovery; America's current-account deficit has swollen to record levels; consumer spending is increasingly tied to prices in the frothy housing market (see article); oil prices are at their highest level in real terms since the early 1980s; and much, much more. But someone plainly forgot to tell the economy that it was supposed to be in trouble. Figures released by the Department of Commerce on November 30th show that the American economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, revised upward from a preliminary estimate of 3.8% issued in November. That is despite the ravages wrought by hurricanes in August and September, which not only destroyed a major port city but closed down a big chunk of the energy industry. Better still, the following week, the Department of Labour reported that over the same period, productivity had grown by 4.7%. Meanwhile, payrolls, which barely grew at all in September and October, had finally posted a respectable 215,000 new jobs in November. Little surprise, then, that George Bush is once again talking up the economic data, and seeking to claim some of the credit for his policies, particularly tax cuts. Sadly for Mr Bush, it appears someone also forgot to tell the voters that the economy is doing well. Polls show approval ratings for the economy on a par with the rest of his dismal numbers. Employment has generally lagged behind the economy. Payroll employment troughed in May 2003, 18 months after the recession ended. Since then, the economy has added 4.5m jobs, as Mr Bush pointed out this week—and unemployment currently hovers around 5%. But wage growth has been sluggish, implying a soft jobs market. The economy is also posing some difficult questions for the Federal Reserve, whose monetary committee meets next week. It has steadily raised interest rates to fight off inflation (see chart). But where does it want to stop? The minutes of the November meeting suggested that the Fed might stop raising rates quite soon. The debt markets quickly decided that 4.5% might be a more likely final target for interest rates than previous estimates of 4.75-5%. Now the new numbers are making everybody reconsider that—especially as Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan's replacement, may be looking for an excuse to prove he is tough on inflation when he takes office in January. Higher oil prices may not have translated into slower economic growth yet, but they are creating inflation. It ran well above 4% in September and October. On the other hand, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is still relatively modest. With gasoline dropping back to $2.15 a gallon from nearly $3 in September, this eases fears that high oil prices will feed through into the broader price index. And the stellar productivity figures increase the pace at which the economy can grow without causing inflation. So Mr Bernanke will not want to be too tough. For now the Fed, like the economy, defies easy prediction. |
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#18 |
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XDTalk 500 Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Jackson, MS
Posts: 962
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That took me all of two minutes to find. What have you been reading?
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#19 | ||
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XDTalk 2K Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: North Olmsted, Ohio
Posts: 2,729
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Ms. SKLAR did not divulge the sources for her bad news. Was she just telling us more than what she knew? Are you just telling us more than you know.....again? Tom
__________________
Springfield XD-40 Service w/DGR kit, EFK 9mm Taurus PT-140 Mill Pro _ Specialized Roubaix Expert "YOU'VE GOT TO STAND FOR SOMETHING OR YOU'LL FALL FOR ANYTHING" ---Aaron Tippin |
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#20 |
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XDTalk 500 Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Jackson, MS
Posts: 962
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2006 economy looks solid
Most forecasters see growth of at least 3 percent, which means more jobs and higher pay. By Mark Trumbull | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor A fifth straight year of economic expansion in 2006 promises to mean new jobs, higher pay, and maybe even fatter investment portfolios for millions of Americans. Despite a backdrop of challenges - notably signs of climate change in the nation's sizzling real estate market and investor jitters over bond rates - this forecast represents a strong consensus among economists. There's no guarantee that the economy will actually match current expectations of 3.4 percent growth next year. But of more than 50 business economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, all but five see growth of 3 percent or higher. The lowest forecast is 2.6 percent. The upshot for those who work, shop, and invest would be a solid but not exciting environment. "I think we'll see decent income growth and decent job growth," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. "The average household will be better off, but moderately." The consensus forecast calls for: • Rising pay. Disposable incomes will rise by 3.2 percent, after inflation, more than double this year's gain. • Costlier borrowing. Short-term interest rates (the three-month Treasury yield) will average 4.5 percent and longer-term rates (10-year Treasury) 4.9 percent, both small upticks from current levels. • Moderate inflation. The consumer price index will rise 3.0 percent during 2006, down slightly from 2005. • Healthy profits. Corporate earnings will grow 7.9 percent, but that's less than half the pace of 2005. That mixed picture, coupled with rising interest rates, has left Wall Street debating whether next year's stock market will head up or down. • A strong job market. Unemployment to remain level at 5.0 percent. While job creation is not forecast in the Blue Chip survey, some experts call for job growth to reach 2 million for the year, higher than 2005 and much stronger than the early years of the current economic expansion. "We're optimistic about the job picture for the next year," says John Challenger, who heads the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Chicago. Of course, these numbers are merely forecasts. But Randell Moore, editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, says that when averaged together, the resulting consensus has been much more reliable over the years than any individual prediction. For example: "2005 is going to be very close to what the consensus was back in January," he says, despite the unforeseen spike in energy prices and major hurricanes that battered the Gulf Coast economy. "I think people are pretty confident that we will not see the initiation of a recession in the United States in 2006," Mr. Moore says. "The odds are higher in 2007 or 2008. Much will depend on inflation and, as a consequence, what the Fed does." The Federal Reserve has been pursuing a policy of pushing up short-term interest rates, toward what many economists see as a neutral level where the economy can grow without fueling inflation. Depending on where inflation heads, the Fed may be nearing the end of its monetary tightening. Already, short-term rates are about equal to the yield on long-term Treasury bonds. Any "inversion," with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates, could signal that the Fed has overdone its job of inflation-fighting. As a result, economic growth could slow below its potential. On Tuesday, a brief inversion triggered a plunge in the stock market. Concern about the Fed will be amplified when Ben Bernanke replaces Alan Greenspan as chairman in February. Inflation and interest rates are just one of several risks economists see in the coming year. Other potential hazards to economic growth could include another surge in oil prices, a housing market that falls rather than flattens, and the possibility of some financial fiasco such as a major corporate bankruptcy. Mr. Behravesh says it would take several major shocks, not just one, to send the global economy into a recession. For his part, he sees a soft landing for the housing market, rather than a plunge in home prices. Indeed, forecasters generally stress the resilience of the US economy. Productivity has continued to rise, exports are growing, and businesses are investing in new equipment. All this bodes well for continued growth. |
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